75% of the ultra-rich forecast a US recession in the next two years, survey finds

The U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders, yet 75 percent of ultra-high net worth investors predict it will hit recession by 2020, a J.P. Morgan survey found.

Of those expecting an economic downturn in the U.S., a fifth of respondents — 21 percent — believe it will begin in 2019 and 50 percent expect the next recession to start in 2020.

J.P. Morgan Private Bank’s Spring Investment Barometer, released this week, surveyed more than 700 global private clients across Europe and the Middle East. Ultra-high net worth individuals (HNWI) are generally classified as anyone with more than $30 million in liquid financial assets, and high-net worth is defined as having more than $1 million.

The ominous predictions may come as a surprise to some, seeing as the U.S. is enjoying strong growth, robust corporate earnings and its lowest unemployment in 17 years. The International Monetary Fund recently upped its U.S. growth forecast for 2018 to 2.9 percent.

J.P. Morgan’s Anthony Collard, head of U.K. and Nordic investments, said that while concern was evident among ultra-high net worth investors regarding America’s economic future, the bank does not see signs of it being close to a recession. “Until we see clear imbalances building, and policy approaching a point where it really constrains economic activity, we lean towards a view that the cycle will continue to expand,” he said.

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