In the last two days, Tesla shares have fallen 15.3 percent. Such a two-day loss has occurred only six times since the electric car maker’s IPO in 2010.
A week after those losses, it returned an average of 3.96 percent, trading positively about 67 percent of the time, according to Kensho, a hedge fund analytics tool. However, if one looks at the individual instances that go into that average, the swings are notable:
That smoothes out a bit in the month-later period where the average return goes up to 19.25 percent, trading positively about 83 percent of the time, but the swings are still wild:
Past returns do not guarantee future results, and worries about Tesla’s ability to meet bond payments could make this time different. But in the past, the stock was able to rebound after big equity declines.
Disclosure: NBCUniversal was a minority investor in Kensho prior to the firm being acquired by S&P.