The market has been laser-focused on the 10-year Treasury note’s yield in recent sessions, as it topped 3 percent last week for the first time in four years.
Now, the level is elusive once again: 3 percent wasn’t held for long, and I don’t see it being revisited again anytime soon.
I’m trading 10-year Treasury futures; when the yield hit 3 percent, the price (moving inversely of yield) was at 119, a level I deemed support. I see a bullish scenario unfolding from here, with a target price of 121.
The Federal Reserve’s message was relatively dovish on Wednesday, more or less signaling they’re willing to allow inflation to run hot and above its 2 percent target. I view this as bullish for the futures contract.
Consider, too, that traders have amassed a record net short position in the 10-year futures, with over 1 million shorts, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Every rally starts with a short cover.
Ultimately, I feel the downside risk is limited. If everyone has already sold here, who is left to sell? If wage growth on Friday’s employment report falls short of expectations, I expect the short-covering to begin.