Disney will beat Comcast for Fox at $45 per share, says Porter Bibb

The DisneyComcast bidding war for Twenty-First Century Fox’s movie and television assets will continue until the bid is around $40 to $45 a share, media expert Porter Bibb told CNBC.

And Disney will end up the winner, said Bibb, managing partner at Mediatech Capital Partners.

“Disney is the future,” Bibb said on “Power Lunch” Wednesday.

And he pointed out, “Disney needs it much more than Comcast does.”

“Comcast has the direct-to-consumer cable and wireless systems that are growing nicely,” Bibb said. “They have plenty of content.”

Bibb pointed out that Disney doesn’t have any direct-to-consumer facing content, although the company said it would launch a streaming channel in 2019 and is expanding its sports coverage on ESPN.

In December, Disney offered $28 a share for Fox. Last week, Comcast countered with an all-cash deal of $35 a share. On Wednesday, Disney raised its bid for Fox to $38 a share, or $71.3 billion.

At least one more round of bidding will occur, Bibb predicted, before “Disney walks away with the prize.”

But Richard Greenfield, a media and technology analyst at BTIG, said Comcast is “not going to give up and roll over.”

Comcast, “really wants to replicate this model of vertical integration all around the world,” Greenfield said Wednesday on CNBC’s “Fast Money.” “There’s no other obvious path for them to take other than Fox and Sky.”

Still, if Comcast wins they would take on an “uncomfortable amount of debt,” Bibb said, which is troubling to investors.

“Disney’s offer is half cash and half stock,” he said. “So the debt burden in a lot less.”

In his talks with investors, Bibb said many are apprehensive about Comcast taking on more debt.

“Comcast is stuck with old media, with cable,” he said. “And they’re tip-toeing into the wireless area. They haven’t really done much to exploit it. But they’ve got maybe 5 to 10 years more of the cable linear direct-to-consumer business. And then it evaporates. It’s all going to be off the internet.”

Disclosure: Comcast is the owner of NBCUniversal, parent company of CNBC and CNBC.com.

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