As we reach the midpoint of what’s been an eventful and at times uncertain year, one thing is clear: Volatility has returned.
Global stock markets fell as much as 9 percent between January and March, with implied volatility rising to levels seen only three times since the global financial crisis. Investors with whom I speak question the impacts of a potential end to the credit cycle, the wind-down of quantitative easing, and a rise in inflation.
I’m also finding that many investors are unprepared as we enter this more volatile phase of the bull market. For instance, they are sticking to familiar assets in their home markets when they should also be looking at opportunities globally.
The real risk for individual investors is not a volatile market itself — it is abandoning long-term financial goals that align with their life goals.
This is a vital moment when investors need to remain invested and to manage risks. They should be asking themselves if they are prepared for alternating stretches of volatility and high growth, with a long-term plan in mind.
Today, robust economic expansion is translating into higher corporate earnings growth. (We estimate companies are likely to deliver 10 percent to 15 percent earnings growth globally this year.) Over the long term, equity prices tend to rise in tandem with earnings growth rates. And while risks have surfaced that could end the economic cycle, some of the best returns are made in the later stages of bull markets.
Since 1928, returns in the final year of bull markets have averaged 22 percent, versus 11 percent in mid-bull-market years. But only those with the required degree of patience and perspective realize those gains.
When we fixate on near-term risks, the chances of a costly mistake from “market timing” are higher. Since 1936, even investors with relatively good market timing — those able to consistently sell 10 months before market peaks and buy back 10 months after troughs — have still ended up worse off than investors who remained invested throughout the period.