Goldman’s relatively upbeat assessment came against a backdrop of a market buffeted by internal and external risks — most notably the U.S.’ ongoing trade war with China. The Dow has erased its gains for the year, while the S&P 500 pulled back 2.3 percent to 2,633.08 and turned negative for the year.
The bank acknowledged that those sharp losses will translate into “some near-term restraint on spending,” as well as consumer lending. Rising interest rates will also dampen the outlook, the bank said, adding that growth will gradually decelerate from 2.8 percent in the first quarter to an average of 2.4-to 2.5 percent over 2019.
In a somber assessment of its own on Friday, Morgan Stanley forecast the market would remain “range bound” in 2019, citing “the elevated risk of an earnings recession. We expect topline growth to decelerate (due to decelerating GDP) and margins to come under pressure.”
With the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank pulling back on loose money policies, “the good news is that tightening may be coming to a pause/end early next year which could bring relief to global asset prices particularly if China growth stabilizes,” Morgan Stanley’s analysts wrote.
Still, economists point to the sharp drop in crude prices, which recently fell below $50 per barrel, as a boost for consumers.
“The recent declines in the oil price, the high savings rate, and strong consumer sentiment, largely offset the drag from recent stock price declines, tightening lending standards, and higher rates,” according to Goldman.
“The bottom line is that even after recent declines in the equity market, we continue to expect strong but decelerating consumption growth over the next few quarters,” the bank said.