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Morgan Stanley said the chipmaker has seen a recent run-up in shares and a continuing oversupply of DRAM.

“Since we downgraded Micron in May of last year we have been more cautious than consensus on near-term fundamentals, but have seen risk/reward for the stock as reasonably balanced. However, the stock has rallied around recent optimism as cloud demand starts to come back (which we DO think is happening starting in 2q), and a minor product qualification challenge at a competitor (that has been happening since early February and has shown no sign of stabilizing things), looks through just how wide the gap between supply and demand is early in the year. We see DRAM remaining oversupplied throughout the year and into next. While NAND is closer to a bottom than DRAM, we do see difficult conditions persisting through the year. Our estimates for FY20 are 58% below consensus and we think there is higher likelihood of downside vs. upside to our numbers. We still see the longer term range for the stock price $30 to $60, but see a much higher likelihood that we see low 30s before we see high 50s.”

Read more about this call here.

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